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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. is projected to rise to $14.59 by 2027, a +13% move from its current price of $12.91. NCDL is currently trading below its 50-day average (a bearish sign). Technical indicators currently lean strong sell.
A data-driven summary — not financial advice. See the full breakdown below.
Live market data via Yahoo Finance · updated 5/28/2026
| Period | Min | Prediction | Max | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29 | $12.74 | $12.91 | $13.08 | 0.00% |
| May 30 | $12.68 | $12.91 | $13.15 | -0.01% |
| May 31 | $12.62 | $12.91 | $13.20 | -0.01% |
| Jun 1 | $12.58 | $12.91 | $13.25 | -0.01% |
| Jun 2 | $12.54 | $12.91 | $13.29 | -0.01% |
| Jun 3 | $12.51 | $12.91 | $13.32 | -0.02% |
| Jun 4 | $12.47 | $12.91 | $13.36 | -0.02% |
| Period | Min | Prediction | Max | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | $12.47 | $12.91 | $13.36 | -0.02% |
| Week 2 | $12.30 | $12.90 | $13.54 | -0.04% |
| Week 3 | $12.16 | $12.90 | $13.69 | -0.06% |
| Week 4 | $12.05 | $12.90 | $13.81 | -0.08% |
| Week 5 | $11.95 | $12.90 | $13.92 | -0.10% |
| Week 6 | $11.86 | $12.89 | $14.02 | -0.12% |
| Week 7 | $11.78 | $12.89 | $14.11 | -0.14% |
Short-term targets derived from the forecast trend and recent volatility. Highly uncertain — not financial advice.
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) is a closed-end, externally managed, non-diversified management investment company that has elected to be regulated as a business development company under the Investment Company Act of 1940. Its investment objective is to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns primarily through current income by investing primarily in senior secured loans to private equity-owned U.S.
middle market companies, which it defines as those with approximately $10.0 million to $100.0 million of EBITDA. The portfolio is expected to comprise primarily first-lien senior secured debt and unitranche loans, with opportunistic investments in junior capital opportunities.
The Company was formed on March 13, 2018, as a limited liability company under the laws of the State of Delaware and was converted into a Maryland corporation on June 18, 2019 prior to the commencement of operations. It operates in the Financial Services sector and is categorized accordingly as a financial services asset.
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. carries the ticker symbol NCDL and is described as a business development company focused on senior secured debt exposure in U.S. middle market companies. The description emphasizes its externally managed, non-diversified structure and its goal of current income-driven returns.
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. trades with a current price of $12.88 and a market capitalization of $636.11M. It is ranked 2855 by market size among listed assets. The price outlook drawn from year-by-year forecasts shows gradually rising averages beyond the near term, with a path from a current price near the forecasted 2026 average toward higher values later in the horizon.
Forecasts for 2026 through 2050 depict a sequence of higher average prices and rising ROI, starting near parity with the current price in 2026 and culminating in a 2050 average of $94.84 with a max of $155.20 and an ROI of 636.4%. Notably, sentiment shifts from Neutral in 2026–2027 to Bullish from 2028 onward, with substantial upside projected in the later years.
In sum, NCDL presents a defined path of long-term appreciation according to the provided quantitative forecast, set against a near-term price environment that is bearish and trading around a defined support/resistance framework.
A major floor 10.6% below — a decisive break under it would weaken the trend.
Price is testing support right now (0.5% away) — a key level to hold.
The nearest ceiling, 14.8% above — a clean break opens room to run.
A major ceiling 20.1% above — clearing it would confirm fresh momentum.
Key NCDL support and resistance from recent price action — levels where the trend has historically paused or reversed. Percentages are the distance from the current price.
A snapshot of NCDL market posture derived from its technical indicators and recent volatility. Higher trend and alignment lean bullish; higher risk means larger swings.
Technical Analysis
Indicators computed on daily closing prices.
| Period | SMA | Action | EMA | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MA 5 | $12.92 | Sell | $12.94 | Sell |
| MA 10 | $13.00 | Sell | $13.09 | Sell |
| MA 20 | $13.60 | Sell | $13.35 | Sell |
| MA 50 | $13.58 | Sell | $13.55 | Sell |
| MA 100 | $13.54 | Sell | $13.71 | Sell |
| MA 200 | $14.10 | Sell | $14.19 | Sell |
| Name | Value | Action |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 36.92 | Neutral |
| Stoch RSI (14) | 18.54 | Buy |
| CCI (20) | -70.80 | Neutral |
| Williams %R (14) | -94.02 | Info |
| MACD (12,26,9) | -0.09 | Sell |
| ROC (12) | -5.49 | Sell |
| Bollinger %B (20,2) | 0.26 | Neutral |
| Stochastic %K (14) | 5.98 | Buy |
| TRIX (15) | -0.19 | Sell |
| Awesome (5,34) | -0.88 | Sell |
| Ultimate (7,14,28) | 23.47 | Buy |
| Momentum (10) | -0.48 | Sell |
| Aroon Osc (25) | -48.00 | Sell |
| Hull MA (9) | 12.88 | Buy |
| ADX (14) | 23.27 | Sell |
| ATR (14) | 0.16 | Info |
The 30-day technical picture is Bearish. The RSI(14) is 40, indicating modest momentum on the downside near the neutral level. The 50-day simple moving average sits at $13.59, while the 200-day simple moving average is at $14.13, both above and below the current price in a way that aligns with a soft consolidation rather than a clear breakout.
Near support sits at $12.84 and resistance at $14.82, with a 30-day range of $11.77 to $14.10. The asset also shows annualized volatility of 30%, underscoring the potential for meaningful price swings in the near term.
| Year | Min | Avg | Max | ROI | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $12.69 | $12.91 | $16.56 | 0% | Neutral | |
| $11.92 | $14.59 | $18.69 | +13% | Neutral | |
| $13.02 | $16.23 | $21.33 | +26% | Bullish | |
| $15.78 | $19.97 | $26.80 | +55% | Bullish | |
| $16.65 | $21.34 | $29.15 | +65% | Bullish | |
| $17.57 | $22.80 | $31.62 | +77% | Bullish | |
| $18.64 | $24.46 | $34.41 | +89% | Bullish | |
| $18.24 | $24.18 | $34.45 | +87% | Bullish | |
| $19.99 | $26.77 | $38.59 | +107% | Bullish | |
| $23.60 | $31.89 | $46.48 | +147% | Bullish | |
| $29.57 | $41.68 | $63.65 | +223% | Bullish | |
| $60.52 | $91.47 | $149.67 | +609% | Bullish |
Current year — the forecast is anchored to the live price, so ROI shows 0%.
| Month | Min | Avg | Max | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | $12.69 | $12.91 | $15.16 | +0.00% |
| June 2026 | $11.21 | $13.08 | $15.55 | +1.30% |
| July 2026 | $10.97 | $12.88 | $15.46 | -1.54% |
| August 2026 | $11.07 | $13.05 | $15.78 | +1.32% |
| September 2026 | $11.23 | $13.28 | $16.15 | +1.79% |
| October 2026 | $11.02 | $13.08 | $16.00 | -1.50% |
| November 2026 | $10.93 | $13.01 | $15.98 | -0.55% |
| December 2026 | $11.24 | $13.42 | $16.56 | +3.15% |
Click any year to see its month-by-month NCDL forecast. Min / Avg / Max are a bear / base / bull scenario; ROI is the projected move from the current price. Change is the month-over-month move in the average. Estimates, not guarantees.
Expect NCDL to range from $12.69 to $16.56 through 2026. The $12.91 average target implies a 0% move from current prices. Price action looks broadly range-bound.
The NCDL price prediction for 2027 points to an average of $14.59 (low $11.92, high $18.69) — a potential gain of +13% on today's $12.91. A consolidation phase looks the most probable path here.
In 2028, NCDL is projected to trade between $13.02 and $21.33, averaging $16.23 — a potential gain of +26% from today's $12.91. That is up +11% on the projected 2027 average. Momentum favours further upside here.
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.'s 2029 outlook centres on $19.97, within a $15.78 to $26.80 range. That is up +23% on the projected 2028 average. That marks a +55% change versus current levels. Buyers look set to stay in control over this stretch.
By 2030, NCDL could reach as high as $29.15, with a base case around $21.34 and support toward $16.65 — roughly +65% from $12.91. Momentum favours further upside here.
Expect NCDL to range from $17.57 to $31.62 through 2031. The $22.80 average target implies a +77% move from current prices. That is up +7% on the projected 2030 average. Buyers look set to stay in control over this stretch.
The NCDL price prediction for 2032 points to an average of $24.46 (low $18.64, high $34.41) — a potential gain of +89% on today's $12.91. Momentum favours further upside here.
In 2033, NCDL is projected to trade between $18.24 and $34.45, averaging $24.18 — a potential gain of +87% from today's $12.91. That is -1% versus the projected 2032 average. Buyers look set to stay in control over this stretch.
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.'s 2034 outlook centres on $26.77, within a $19.99 to $38.59 range. That is up +11% on the projected 2033 average. That marks a +107% change versus current levels. Momentum favours further upside here.
By 2035, NCDL could reach as high as $46.48, with a base case around $31.89 and support toward $23.60 — roughly +147% from $12.91. Buyers look set to stay in control over this stretch.
Expect NCDL to range from $29.57 to $63.65 through 2040. The $41.68 average target implies a +223% move from current prices. That is up +31% on the projected 2035 average. Momentum favours further upside here.
The NCDL price prediction for 2050 points to an average of $91.47 (low $60.52, high $149.67) — a potential gain of +609% on today's $12.91. Buyers look set to stay in control over this stretch.
Investing $1,000 in NCDL today (≈ 77.459334 NCDL) could be worth
$7,085.04
+$6,085.04 (+609%) by 2050 · US Dollar
Based on the average projected NCDL price of $91.47 in 2050.
Based on the base (average) forecast scenario. FX rates are indicative. Estimates only — not financial advice.
See what a past investment in NCDLwould be worth at today's price.
$1,000 invested in NCDL on May 27, 2025 (≈ 62.735259 NCDL) would be worth
$809.91
-$190.09 (-19.0%) today · 0.81× · US Dollar
Based on a NCDL entry price of $15.94 vs. today's $12.91.
| Invested | Entry price | Value today | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week ago | $12.95 | $996.91 | -0.3% |
| 1 month ago | $14.15 | $912.37 | -8.8% |
| 3 months ago | $13.36 | $966.32 | -3.4% |
| 6 months ago | $14.82 | $871.12 | -12.9% |
| 1 year ago | $15.94 | $809.91 | -19.0% |
| All time (2.3y) ago | $17.85 | $723.25 | -27.7% |
Past performance from historical market data — it does not predict future results. FX rates are indicative. Not financial advice.
Enter a price to see how it sits against our NCDL forecast.
Our base-case forecast reaches $26.00 around 2034.
Implied market cap at $26.00: $1.28B
The multi-year forecast lays out a continuing rise in average price and substantial ROI across the horizon. The 2026 average is $12.88 with an ROI of 0% in a Neutral sentiment frame, followed by growth through the late 2020s and into the 2030s. By 2027 the average is $14.64 (ROI 13.7%), 2028 is $16.40 (ROI 27.4%), and 2029 is $20.28 (ROI 57.5%).
The 2030 forecast shows an average of $21.60 with ROI of 67.7%, and 2031 reaches $23.16 (ROI 79.8%).
Further out, 2032 averages $24.95 (ROI 93.7%), 2033 $24.54 (ROI 90.6%), 2034 $27.47 (ROI 113.3%), and 2035 $32.90 (ROI 155.4%). The long arc shows continued strength with 2040 an average of $42.96 (ROI 233.6%), and 2050 an average of $94.84 (ROI 636.4%). Sentiment remains Bullish from 2028 onward, with the late horizon projecting pronounced upside.
These are estimates, not guarantees. The near-term bearish backdrop with a defined resistance level and volatility suggests that upside in the long run is possible but approaches are subject to market conditions and other uncertainties.
Tap a question to reveal the answer.
In 2030, the forecasted average price is $21.60 with an ROI of 67.7% and a bullish sentiment. The forecasted min is $16.84 and the max is $29.51.
The long-term forecast shows rising averages and positive ROI across multiple years, with a bullish sentiment from 2028 onward and a 2050 max forecast of $155.20 (ROI 636.4). Near term remains Neutral to Bearish, and these are estimates, not guarantees.
Yes. The forecasted max price by 2040 is $65.61, and the 2035 max is $47.95, indicating that hitting $50 occurs within the forecast horizon, specifically by or before 2040.
Current price is $12.88 and market cap is $636.11M.
For 2040, the min price is $30.48, the avg is $42.96, and the max is $65.61, with an ROI of 233.6% and a bullish sentiment.
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