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Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. is projected to rise to $11.83 by 2027, a +13% move from its current price of $10.43. ARI is currently trading below its 50-day average (a bearish sign). Technical indicators currently lean strong sell.
A data-driven summary — not financial advice. See the full breakdown below.
Live market data via Yahoo Finance · updated 7/11/2026
| Period | Min | Prediction | Max | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 12 | $10.33 | $10.43 | $10.54 | +0.02% |
| Jul 13 | $10.29 | $10.43 | $10.58 | +0.04% |
| Jul 14 | $10.26 | $10.44 | $10.62 | +0.06% |
| Jul 15 | $10.23 | $10.44 | $10.65 | +0.07% |
| Jul 16 | $10.21 | $10.44 | $10.67 | +0.09% |
| Jul 17 | $10.19 | $10.44 | $10.70 | +0.11% |
| Jul 18 | $10.17 | $10.44 | $10.72 | +0.13% |
| Period | Min | Prediction | Max | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | $10.17 | $10.44 | $10.72 | +0.13% |
| Week 2 | $10.08 | $10.46 | $10.85 | +0.26% |
| Week 3 | $10.01 | $10.47 | $10.96 | +0.39% |
| Week 4 | $9.95 | $10.48 | $11.05 | +0.53% |
| Week 5 | $9.90 | $10.50 | $11.13 | +0.66% |
| Week 6 | $9.86 | $10.51 | $11.21 | +0.79% |
| Week 7 | $9.82 | $10.53 | $11.28 | +0.92% |
Short-term targets derived from the forecast trend and recent volatility. Highly uncertain — not financial advice.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. is a real estate investment trust that originates, acquires, invests in, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate-related debt investments. The company is qualified as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code and, as a REIT, would not be subject to federal income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to stockholders.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is based in New York, New York.
ARI is a Real Estate sector asset trading under the symbol ARI. The current price is $10.83 and the market capitalization is $1.42B, with a market rank of 2298. The stock shows a mixed near-term technical picture with a bullish orientation in longer horizons reflected in the forecast.
The 2026 forecast sets a neutral tone with an average price of $10.83 and 0% ROI, while the longer horizon projects meaningful upside with bullish sentiment and double-digit to triple-digit ROIs in later years.
A major floor 7.4% below — a decisive break under it would weaken the trend.
Price is testing support right now (2.8% away) — a key level to hold.
The nearest ceiling, 5.5% above — a clean break opens room to run.
A major ceiling 9.1% above — clearing it would confirm fresh momentum.
Key ARI support and resistance from recent price action — levels where the trend has historically paused or reversed. Percentages are the distance from the current price.
A snapshot of ARI market posture derived from its technical indicators and recent volatility. Higher trend and alignment lean bullish; higher risk means larger swings.
Technical Analysis
Indicators computed on daily closing prices.
| Period | SMA | Action | EMA | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MA 5 | $10.26 | Buy | $10.33 | Buy |
| MA 10 | $10.42 | Buy | $10.41 | Buy |
| MA 20 | $10.60 | Sell | $10.55 | Sell |
| MA 50 | $10.80 | Sell | $10.70 | Sell |
| MA 100 | $10.73 | Sell | $10.67 | Sell |
| MA 200 | $10.42 | Buy | $10.49 | Sell |
| Name | Value | Action |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 43.86 | Neutral |
| Stoch RSI (14) | 60.91 | Neutral |
| CCI (20) | -55.34 | Neutral |
| Williams %R (14) | -62.34 | Info |
| MACD (12,26,9) | -0.04 | Sell |
| ROC (12) | -4.40 | Sell |
| Bollinger %B (20,2) | 0.32 | Neutral |
| Stochastic %K (14) | 37.66 | Neutral |
| TRIX (15) | -0.16 | Sell |
| Awesome (5,34) | -0.48 | Sell |
| Ultimate (7,14,28) | 36.75 | Neutral |
| Momentum (10) | -0.34 | Sell |
| Aroon Osc (25) | -76.00 | Sell |
| Hull MA (9) | 10.17 | Buy |
| ADX (14) | 15.73 | Neutral |
| ATR (14) | 0.11 | Info |
The 30-day technical picture for ARI is labeled BULLISH with an RSI of 50. The 50-day simple moving average sits at $10.95 and the 200-day simple moving average sits at $10.44. Support is identified at $10.66 and resistance at $11.04, framing a 30-day range from $10.25 to $11.45.
| Year | Min | Avg | Max | ROI | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $9.76 | $10.43 | $13.45 | 0% | Neutral | |
| $9.69 | $11.83 | $15.10 | +13% | Neutral | |
| $10.98 | $13.66 | $17.91 | +31% | Bullish | |
| $10.91 | $13.78 | $18.45 | +32% | Bullish | |
| $11.67 | $14.95 | $20.37 | +43% | Bullish | |
| $14.34 | $18.59 | $25.74 | +78% | Bullish | |
| $15.88 | $20.81 | $29.22 | +100% | Bullish | |
| $17.38 | $23.01 | $32.74 | +121% | Bullish | |
| $18.23 | $24.38 | $35.09 | +134% | Bullish | |
| $18.21 | $24.59 | $35.79 | +136% | Bullish | |
| $28.59 | $40.26 | $61.41 | +286% | Bullish | |
| $45.26 | $68.36 | $111.77 | +555% | Bullish |
Current year — the forecast is anchored to the live price, so ROI shows 0%.
| Month | Min | Avg | Max | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2026 | $9.76 | $10.43 | $12.62 | +0.00% |
| August 2026 | $9.14 | $10.70 | $12.80 | +2.58% |
| September 2026 | $9.02 | $10.61 | $12.79 | -0.83% |
| October 2026 | $9.18 | $10.85 | $13.16 | +2.25% |
| November 2026 | $9.33 | $11.05 | $13.49 | +1.91% |
| December 2026 | $9.23 | $10.97 | $13.45 | -0.77% |
Click any year to see its month-by-month ARI forecast. Min / Avg / Max are a bear / base / bull scenario; ROI is the projected move from the current price. Change is the month-over-month move in the average. Estimates, not guarantees.
The ARI price prediction for 2026 points to an average of $10.43 (low $9.76, high $13.45) — a potential gain of 0% on today's $10.43. A consolidation phase looks the most probable path here.
In 2027, ARI is projected to trade between $9.69 and $15.10, averaging $11.83 — a potential gain of +13% from today's $10.43. That is up +13% on the projected 2026 average. Price action looks broadly range-bound.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s 2028 outlook centres on $13.66, within a $10.98 to $17.91 range. That is up +16% on the projected 2027 average. That marks a +31% change versus current levels. Buyers look set to stay in control over this stretch.
By 2029, ARI could reach as high as $18.45, with a base case around $13.78 and support toward $10.91 — roughly +32% from $10.43. Momentum favours further upside here.
Expect ARI to range from $11.67 to $20.37 through 2030. The $14.95 average target implies a +43% move from current prices. That is up +8% on the projected 2029 average. Buyers look set to stay in control over this stretch.
The ARI price prediction for 2031 points to an average of $18.59 (low $14.34, high $25.74) — a potential gain of +78% on today's $10.43. Momentum favours further upside here.
In 2032, ARI is projected to trade between $15.88 and $29.22, averaging $20.81 — a potential gain of +100% from today's $10.43. That is up +12% on the projected 2031 average. Buyers look set to stay in control over this stretch.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s 2033 outlook centres on $23.01, within a $17.38 to $32.74 range. That is up +11% on the projected 2032 average. That marks a +121% change versus current levels. Momentum favours further upside here.
By 2034, ARI could reach as high as $35.09, with a base case around $24.38 and support toward $18.23 — roughly +134% from $10.43. Buyers look set to stay in control over this stretch.
Expect ARI to range from $18.21 to $35.79 through 2035. The $24.59 average target implies a +136% move from current prices. That is up +1% on the projected 2034 average. Momentum favours further upside here.
The ARI price prediction for 2040 points to an average of $40.26 (low $28.59, high $61.41) — a potential gain of +286% on today's $10.43. Buyers look set to stay in control over this stretch.
In 2050, ARI is projected to trade between $45.26 and $111.77, averaging $68.36 — a potential gain of +555% from today's $10.43. That is up +70% on the projected 2040 average. Momentum favours further upside here.
Investing $1,000 in ARI today (≈ 95.877277 ARI) could be worth
$6,553.78
+$5,553.78 (+555%) by 2050 · US Dollar
Based on the average projected ARI price of $68.36 in 2050.
Based on the base (average) forecast scenario. FX rates are indicative. Estimates only — not financial advice.
See what a past investment in ARIwould be worth at today's price.
$1,000 invested in ARI on Jul 10, 2025 (≈ 99.403574 ARI) would be worth
$1,036.78
+$36.78 (+3.7%) today · 1.04× · US Dollar
Based on a ARI entry price of $10.06 vs. today's $10.43.
| Invested | Entry price | Value today | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week ago | $10.39 | $1,003.85 | +0.4% |
| 1 month ago | $10.89 | $957.76 | -4.2% |
| 3 months ago | $10.86 | $960.41 | -4.0% |
| 6 months ago | $9.98 | $1,045.09 | +4.5% |
| 1 year ago | $10.06 | $1,036.78 | +3.7% |
| All time (5.0y) ago | $15.8 | $660.13 | -34.0% |
Past performance from historical market data — it does not predict future results. FX rates are indicative. Not financial advice.
Enter a price to see how it sits against our ARI forecast.
Our base-case forecast reaches $21.00 around 2033.
Implied market cap at $21.00: $2.75B
In 2030, the forecast shows an average price of $16.26 with a min of $12.69 and a max of $22.19, an ROI of 50.1% and a bullish sentiment. The 2040 forecast features an average of $43.79 with a min of $31.08 and a max of $66.82, a ROI of 304.3% and a bullish sentiment. The 2050 forecast lists an average of $75.97 with a min of $50.29 and a max of $124.26, a ROI of 601.5% and a bullish sentiment.
Earlier years show progressive gains with 2027 avg $12.67 (ROI 17) and 2028 avg $14.30 (ROI 32.1), culminating in 2035 avg $26.64 (ROI 146). These figures illustrate an upward trajectory with sustained bullish outlooks through 2030, 2040, and 2050, though outcomes are estimates and not guarantees.
Tap a question to reveal the answer.
2030 average price $16.26 with a min of $12.69 and a max of $22.19, ROI 50.1% and sentiment BULLISH.
Forecasts show rising average prices and bullish sentiment in later years, including 2030 (avg $16.26, ROI 50.1%) and strong upside in 2040 (avg $43.79, ROI 304.3%) and 2050 (avg $75.97, ROI 601.5%), with 2026 positioned as neutral.
Yes. The forecast maximum in 2033 is $35.60, with 2034 max $37.87 and 2035 max $38.80; the 2040 max is $66.82 and the 2050 max is $124.26.
Current price $10.83; Market cap $1.42B.
30-day range is $10.25–$11.45 with a support of $10.66 and a resistance of $11.04. RSI(14) is 50, SMA50 is $10.95, and SMA200 is $10.44.
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